Transport Policy Summit exposing transport’s horrible “Climate Gap”
CONCITO took part in this year’s summit to share our knowledge on climate action in transport and build networks to help promote effective policy action.
Zero Emission Zones – How?
Joining with partners in the Transport Decarbonization Alliance we launched the updated report Zero-Emission Zones in the City: Don’t Wait to Start with Freight! It is a How-to-Guide for cities around the World that are keen to eliminate the multiple negative environmental impacts of today’s urban freight. A key take-away that it is possible for cities to start the journey towards zero emission freight already now, even if national governments are often far behind in providing supportive frameworks for action. So far only the Netherlands has the forward-looking policies that will let zero emission freight become a reality in the first fifteen cities from 2025, but cities in many other parts of the world are clearly on the move.
Outlook to the “Climate Gap”
While not like a proper “COP” known from climate policy, the ITF Summit is still a good spot for updating your diagnosis of contemporary transport policy thinking and transport political resolve - or the lack of it. Not least when it comes to transport sustainability and climate change, both topics on the agenda of ITF Summit 2023. Unfortunately, the diagnosis must be something like deep schizophrenia. The gap between how transport currently evolves and how it should to avoid global climate breakdown is truly scary.
This figure below from the ITF Transport Outlook 2023 report, released at the Summit, shows expected CO2 emissions from the global transport sector towards 2050. What the report labels as the Current Ambitions scenario (blue line) incorporates today’s trends, targets, and policies in the transport sector worldwide. This scenario could push our planet into high peril as it maintains transport emissions near the current entirely unsustainable levels for decades to come, compared to the need for reaching net-zero emissions around mid-century as advised by the UN climate expert panel IPCC and others.
In contrast, the so-called High Ambitions scenario (green line), reflects the outcome emerging from computers when ITF policy analyst’s push multiple levers available in their models to make transport comply with requirements of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Hence, the High Ambitions green scenario assumes a wide range of policies that are far from agreed, let alone delivered.
Global transport CO2-emissions under scenarios with ’Current Ambitions’ (blue) and ’High Ambitions’ (green). Source: ITF (2023) International Transport Outlook.
The High Ambitions scenario finds that up to 75% of required emission reductions needed are to be realized through changes to transport systems and technical solutions, especially phase-out of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles and fossil fuels, to be replaced by electrification and other alternatives to petrol, diesel, and oil. This underscores the importance of speeding up technological transition, not least in the major developing economies in the global South, and this will again require new types of investments and significant transfer of funds from North to South.
However, the analysis also clearly demonstrates that technology is not enough. Fulfilling needed emission reductions will also require significant changes to urban development, mobility, and transport habits; jointly contributing at least 25% of the reductions, and more in some countries (and cities). Actions in cities assumed in the High Ambitions scenario include integrated urban and transport planning, massive investments in walking, cycling and public/shared transport, the introduction of road pricing, and a lowering of vehicle speeds by one third towards the 2040’es. Only together will these measures deliver the benchmark 80% reduction of emissions by 2050 which is assumed necessary in the analysis (full net zero for transport is not even considered). According to the ITF Transport Outlook these transformations to decarbonize urban mobility will also deliver a range of wider benefits such as cleaner air, less noise, less congestion, safer environments, and lots of space freed from moving and parking cars.
Green transformation is cheaper.
The best news is that the green curve saves money compared with the blue one, lots of money, that is. According to the ITF Outlook the World could save around four trillion USD towards 2050 by following the Paris-agreement compatible trajectory, which entails fewer expenses to concrete, steel, pavements and other equipment for cars. The preconditions for harvesting those savings include that the usual ”predict and provide” approach to infrastructure is replaced by so-called ”decide and provide” planning, meaning goal-oriented policy taking the lead over mechanical projections. Large scale investments will still be needed, in areas like EV-charging infrastructure, railways, urban mobility, and climate adaptation of transport systems but not at the same scale as in predicted by Current Ambitions.
Recommendations – and a diagnosis for Denmark
The ITF Outlook provides five clear recommendations to decision makers. In the table below CONCITO provides our summary of the ITF recommendations followed by our interpretation of how policies in our own home country Denmark (by some believed to be a green front runner) performs in those regards.
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ITF RECOMMENDATIONS |
STATUS FOR DENMARK |
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Develop comprehensive strategies for future mobility and infrastructure. |
Note delivered in Denmark. There is a national Infrastructure Plan 2035”, which mostly adheres to “predict and provide”. A comprehensive plan for sustainable mobility is sorely lacking. Multiple stakeholders from Industry to green NGO’s have requested a mobility plan; The Minister of Transport has indicated he might be contemplating. |
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Accelerate the transition to clean vehicle fleets.
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Policy measures including taxing have been adopted to promote electric cars and use of alternatives to fossil fuels. However, policies have significant limitations, including subsidizing hybrid vehicles and promoting biofuels. Moreover, policies are slow to impact emissions with many years of continued high sales of ICE cars. A promised strategy for zero emission trucks is delayed and still missing. |
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Implement mode shift and demand-management policies where they are most effective |
Danmark does plan and invest for public transport, railways, and bicycles but there is little effort on demand management, or achieving significant shifts away from cars, and bicycle investments are critiqued by contemporary research exactly for not targeting where they would be most effective. |
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Consider the additional benefits for urban areas when evaluating policies |
This is not much considered in national infrastructure decision making in Denmark. In fact, the most recent assessment guidance document downplays unpriced, additional benefits like preserving landscape or urban qualities. Several cities, however, do focus on urban environment and health in their municipal plans, mobility plans or climate plans. |
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Reform vehicle taxation to capture external costs of new vehicle fleets |
Passenger cars in Denmark are taxed in a way so they barely cover their external costs, according to The Danish Economic Councils; road-pricing is only in an early experimental stage. Trucks are very far from covering external costs despite a newly adopted Road User tax to be phased in from 2025. |
Action?
Does anyone listen to the policy recommendations? You can have your doubts when you hear what emerge from ministers and governments at the ITF Summit. Political discussions in Leipzig are kept behind closed doors, under the leadership of a Presidency, which this year was the United Kingdom. Individual ministers do appear at some press events or open debates where they may air various green initiatives etc. One example is Chile's Transport Minister Munoz, who is rightly proud of the experience with Santiago's 2,000 electric buses, the largest fleet in the world, outside of China. The ministers could did also repeat their support for Ukraine from last year and promised to contribute to rebuilding the country's infrastructure when the war is over.
But the UK presidency's political statement was, unfortunately, very weak, to say the least. Transport is important for a sustainable economy. Climate, circular economy, and equality are key topics to discuss in this connection, it is also stated, but not much more. The chair happily observes a growing organization (now 66 member countries) although this also seems to make significant joint action harder to agree on
Towards greening transport at the ITF Summit 2024
Fortunately, the incoming ITF Presidency of Lithuania, seems committed to take things further next year. Under the very timely topic of “Greening of Transport” Lithuania will aim for more political content and fewer celebratory toasts. The 2024 summit will include a strong focus on sustainable urban mobility and multi-level governance. 29 Lithuanian cities have developed green mobility plans with support from the Ministry of Transport. Next step will be to ensure that the urban mobility plans are translated into relevant investments that can be implemented and make a positive difference for sustainability. This is obviously not only a concern for one country but for all member states of the International Transport Forum. Hopefully the ITF summit 2024 will help move this important agenda forward.
