COP28 signals the beginning of the end for fossil fuels

COP28 in Dubai has come to an end after weeks of highly dramatic battles over how the world should respond to the fact that we are nowhere near on track to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees. A broad coalition of countries from the North and South, including the EU, small island states and progressive Latin American countries, have been pushing for the end result to include a phase-out of all fossil fuels for the first time ever. With major oil and gas producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia around the table, the battle lines were drawn hard. In the end, agreement was reached on a package that includes a transition away from fossil fuels, including an acceleration in this decade, a tripling of renewable energy and doubling of the rate of improvement of energy efficiency by 2030.

"We have succeeded in reaching a historic decision that the entire world must get out of the fossil fuel dependency that has brought the planet to the boiling point. The agreement sends a clear signal to investors, companies and municipalities that green energy and energy efficiency is the way forward. At the same time, there are a number of loopholes built into the text that can be abused, and although there are frequent references to science, the agreement does not go far enough to ensure that it is acted upon," says Jens Mattias Clausen, EU Program Manager and COP Officer, CONCITO.

However, the agreement lays the foundation for keeping the 1.5 degrees target alive by launching a 'Mission 1.5' track towards COP30, which will accelerate early action and ensure a continued strong link to a scientific basis for global action.  However, this will only become a reality if all actors do their utmost and deliver highly ambitious actions. 

Both the energy package and references to, for example, the need for sustainable agriculture are not in themselves binding for each individual country. Therefore, the focus will now shift to the implementation of the decisions by countries. The agreement also sends a clear signal to all countries in the world that the next generation of climate plans, the Nationally Determined Contributions, to be developed over the next 10 months, must be in line with a complete energy transition by 2050.

"As always, the litmus test will be whether words and promises are translated into action outside the walls of the conference center. This agreement will not save the planet on its own. Committed initiatives are needed to realize the agreement. At the same time, the stage is now set for countries to put new climate plans and targets on the table by 2025, and civil society as a whole will be keeping a close eye on whether these plans reflect the decisions made here in Dubai," says Jens Mattias Clausen.

The agreement does not go far enough in ensuring that poor and vulnerable developing countries get help to make the necessary transition and adapt to the increasingly extreme consequences.

"It's the most vulnerable, who have the least responsibility for creating the problem, who are on the front line. Although we have reached a very important agreement on a new fund to help with loss and damage, there are still a lot of outstanding issues. Next year in Baku, where the countries will agree on the next collective funding target, it is crucial that the rich countries step up," says Jens Mattias Clausen.