COP28 sends signals, but only a few concrete calls for the next round of national climate plans

The forward-looking direction is crucial, as there is just over a year until all countries must submit the next round of their national climate plans, which should include goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. A combination of vague language and a lack of support for developing countries to formulate their national climate plans in the final decision text risks undermining sufficiently stringent goals for 2035.

In the following, we examine how ambitious the next round of national climate plans with reduction targets for 2035 needs to be for the world to stay on course toward the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, the signals and calls the COP28 decision sends to countries, and what further action is needed.

Globally, between 18 and 29 gigatons of CO2 equivalents need to be cut by 2035 compared to countries' current reduction targets.

It is no secret that the global level of ambition needs to rise significantly in the next round of national climate plans with goals for 2035 if the world is to stay on track toward the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. COP28 "acknowledges" the latest IPCC report, which concludes that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 must be 60% below the 2019 level. The latest Emissions Gap report from the UN Environment Programme shows that this corresponds to the ambition level in the next round of climate plans needing to be sufficient to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 gigatons of CO2 equivalents compared to the current unconditional reduction targets for 2030 to stay on course to limit global warming to 2 degrees. This is roughly equivalent to the current greenhouse gas emissions from China and the EU. To stay on course for 1.5 degrees, global emissions must be reduced by 29 gigatons of CO2 equivalents—equivalent to the total current greenhouse gas emissions from China, the EU, the USA, India, Russia, and Indonesia.

COP28 sends overarching signals but lacks concrete calls and support for developing countries.

So, what does the final text from Dubai actually say? It confirms that all countries must submit their next climate plans 9-12 months before COP30 in Brazil. In other words, national plans must be submitted by the end of February 2025. Furthermore, countries are encouraged to develop ambitious reduction goals covering the entire economy and all sectors and greenhouse gases, and which are compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. There is nothing new in that.

The main signals are found in paragraph 28, which "calls on" countries to contribute to a tripling of global renewable energy capacity and a doubling of the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The paragraph also includes text about a gradual transition away from fossil fuels by 2050, reducing methane emissions, phasing out "unabated" coal consumption, and more. However, many emphasize that the final text lacks clear goals for the next decade, and overall, the decision text contains very few calls for concrete action. The 196 paragraphs of the text largely "remind," "note," or "welcome"—all formulations that do not require any action from countries. However, the final text decides to establish a dialogue to follow up on the implementation of the global stocktake recommendations and to initiate a so-called "Roadmap to Mission 1.5," which will consist of a series of activities aimed at strengthening international cooperation and frameworks to facilitate and stimulate increased ambition in the next round of climate plans.

Additionally, the final text (paragraph 117) includes a single reflection on increasing the capacity of developing countries to formulate the next round of their climate plans.

Time will tell if the signals from COP28 are strong enough, but support for developing countries must be on the table now.

The next 18 months will show to what extent major emitters follow up on the signals COP28 has delivered and translates them into significantly more ambitious climate plans and goals for 2035. At the same time, low- and middle-income countries today account for 69% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions continue to rise in the majority of these countries. The international community should establish the support low- and middle-income countries are requesting as soon as possible to develop ambitious and robust climate plans with goals for 2035.

The forward-looking direction is crucial, as there is just over a year until all countries must submit the next round of their national climate plans, which should include goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. A combination of vague language and a lack of support for developing countries to formulate their national climate plans in the final decision text risks undermining sufficiently stringent goals for 2035.

In the following, we examine how ambitious the next round of national climate plans with reduction targets for 2035 needs to be for the world to stay on course toward the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, the signals and calls the COP28 decision sends to countries, and what further action is needed.

Globally, between 18 and 29 gigatons of CO2 equivalents need to be cut by 2035 compared to countries' current reduction targets.

It is no secret that the global level of ambition needs to rise significantly in the next round of national climate plans with goals for 2035 if the world is to stay on track toward the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. COP28 "acknowledges" the latest IPCC report, which concludes that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 must be 60% below the 2019 level. The latest Emissions Gap report from the UN Environment Programme shows that this corresponds to the ambition level in the next round of climate plans needing to be sufficient to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 gigatons of CO2 equivalents compared to the current unconditional reduction targets for 2030 to stay on course to limit global warming to 2 degrees. This is roughly equivalent to the current greenhouse gas emissions from China and the EU. To stay on course for 1.5 degrees, global emissions must be reduced by 29 gigatons of CO2 equivalents—equivalent to the total current greenhouse gas emissions from China, the EU, the USA, India, Russia, and Indonesia.

COP28 sends overarching signals but lacks concrete calls and support for developing countries.

So, what does the final text from Dubai actually say? It confirms that all countries must submit their next climate plans 9-12 months before COP30 in Brazil. In other words, national plans must be submitted by the end of February 2025. Furthermore, countries are encouraged to develop ambitious reduction goals covering the entire economy and all sectors and greenhouse gases, and which are compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. There is nothing new in that.

The main signals are found in paragraph 28, which "calls on" countries to contribute to a tripling of global renewable energy capacity and a doubling of the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The paragraph also includes text about a gradual transition away from fossil fuels by 2050, reducing methane emissions, phasing out "unabated" coal consumption, and more. However, many emphasize that the final text lacks clear goals for the next decade, and overall, the decision text contains very few calls for concrete action. The 196 paragraphs of the text largely "remind," "note," or "welcome"—all formulations that do not require any action from countries. However, the final text decides to establish a dialogue to follow up on the implementation of the global stocktake recommendations and to initiate a so-called "Roadmap to Mission 1.5," which will consist of a series of activities aimed at strengthening international cooperation and frameworks to facilitate and stimulate increased ambition in the next round of climate plans.

Additionally, the final text (paragraph 117) includes a single reflection on increasing the capacity of developing countries to formulate the next round of their climate plans.

Time will tell if the signals from COP28 are strong enough, but support for developing countries must be on the table now.

The next 18 months will show to what extent major emitters follow up on the signals COP28 has delivered and translates them into significantly more ambitious climate plans and goals for 2035. At the same time, low- and middle-income countries today account for 69% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions continue to rise in the majority of these countries. The international community should establish the support low- and middle-income countries are requesting as soon as possible to develop ambitious and robust climate plans with goals for 2035.