Main points from IPCC's report "Mitigating Climate Change"

The new report sets out trends in global greenhouse gas emissions and documents that we are looking at a temperature rise of 2.5 to 3 degrees by the end of the 21st century unless the world's countries collectively accelerate efforts to reduce future emissions. The two previous interim reports of the Panel have clearly shown that global warming of 2.5 to 3 degrees will have incalculable human, economic and environmental consequences.

Here is a summary of the main findings of the latest report.

Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and the carbon budget for 1.5 degrees is soon exhausted

The corona epidemic with the Great Global Shutdown meant a drop in emissions in 2020, but as several studies show, by 2021, emissions were back to previous levels. In addition, several studies have documented that post-epidemic recovery has been used only to a limited extent to promote green investments. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise globally and are now over 50% higher than when the UNFCCC was negotiated around 1990. Coincidentally, this is roughly the same percentage (45%) that current emissions need to be reduced by by 2030 if we are to have any chance of staying within a 1.5-degree temperature rise.

The greenhouse effect is a result of the accumulation of gases in the atmosphere. This is why we operate within a so-called carbon budget for the atmosphere, which sets a maximum limit for total greenhouse gas emissions over time. At present, we have used more than 80% of the budget that allows us to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming. If annual emissions continue at current levels, we will use the last 20% of the budget over the next ten years. If that happens, we can no longer avoid a temperature rise of more than 1.5 degrees, no matter how fast we reduce after 2030. So, it is crucial that we act now with a significant increase in a determined effort.

Climate policies have an impact, but the pedal needs to be put to the metal

The report documents that the political focus on climate has had an impact. Emissions would have been significantly higher if fewer countries had introduced climate policies. The introduction of national climate plans under the Paris Agreement is the first step toward a collective solution, but the report concludes that the prefaces so far are woefully inadequate. If ambitions are not raised quickly, even full implementation of the 2030 plans will not be enough to keep the 1.5-degree target alive. The options for staying below 2 degrees will be limited and will require dramatic reductions beyond 2030.

So, what will it take? Global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 compared to today if we want to have a reasonable chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees. In addition, global CO2 emissions must go to net zero[1] by 2050. This, the panel says, will require significant transformations of all parts of society, with energy production and transport systems, in particular, being completely transformed. 

The report stresses that such a societal transformation will require massive investment in all sectors, but the necessary capital is available. However, it will require a very strong transformation of financial actors, helped by clear national and international political signals and public commitment to reduce uncertainties and risks for private investors.

In addition, the report underlines the need to link emission reductions with climate adaptation, where synergies are possible. This is primarily the case for agriculture and forestry, where more efficient and sustainable use of both land and biomass will be essential. There is also great potential in more integrated urban development, linking energy-efficient housing, green spaces, and public transport, which can contribute to reducing vulnerability, transport needs, and energy consumption.

The technologies to reach the 2030 target already exist and will make the net-zero target for 2050 easier to achieve

The good news is that with existing technologies, particularly in energy, transport, agriculture, and construction, it is possible to achieve the required 45% reduction by 2030 with limited additional costs. If savings from avoided climate damage are included, the report shows that overall, it is economically beneficial to make the necessary transition, which will also bring other benefits such as increased employment and reduced air pollution.

The longer-term challenge of getting to net-zero will be much easier if the direction is set as early as possible. The longer one waits to start reducing emissions, the higher the requirements for future reductions. Some industrial sectors, such as cement production and parts of agriculture, will find it very difficult to reach net zero, so all the projections the Panel has looked at use carbon capture and storage to some extent. This could be done, for example, by capturing the gases directly at the source and then storing them, for example, underground, which is already used to a limited extent in some countries. There are also technologies in the research and development stages that can capture CO2 directly from the air and then store or possibly recycle the gas. However, these are generally expensive solutions that are not attractive in the short term.

The transition requires solutions to fundamental distributional issues

Climate change is one of the first global problems that can only be solved through collective action. What each person, city, or country reduces is not directly linked to local climate impacts.

It is the industrialized countries that historically have spent large amounts of the common carbon budget as they developed their economies. Now that developing countries increasingly dominate global emissions, they are hit by the fact that the budget will soon be used up. Therefore, they are faced with simultaneously developing their economies and transforming their societies to protect the climate.

Underlying this traditional North-South issue is an equally difficult situation of the differences between emissions from rich and poor populations. The UN Panel on Climate Change estimates that the wealthiest 10% of populations are responsible for around 40% of all emissions, while the poorest 50% together contribute less than 15%. Add to this the fact that two-thirds of the wealthiest live in industrialized countries, while the vast majority of the poor live in developing countries.

International cooperation crucial

Overall, this means that a balanced and equitable transition is needed both nationally and globally, with industrialized countries helping developing countries with policy development, institution building, and facilitating investment. At the same time, internally, all countries seek to create a transition that takes care of the groups that will be disadvantaged by the transition.

One of the most obvious examples of this is in the coal sector, where several large developing countries have both local coal production and extensive coal use in the energy sector. Here, the conversion will require a huge effort to create new job opportunities for former coal workers to provide the necessary training, etc. An example of such an initiative is the International Just Energy Transition Partnership. Here the US, EU, and the UK are working with the South African government to support the process underway in the country. They are trying to reduce the dependence on coal, increase the production of power from wind and solar, and create a process involving as many people as possible who work in the mining, processing, transport, and use of coal.

Climate panel reports unequivocally document the climate challenge

The Climate Panel does not work to provide direct recommendations. It gives the scientific basis for policy decisions. Yet, if there is one conclusion to be drawn from the three reports, it is that the global community faces an unprecedented challenge that can only be met collectively. With the three interim reports from the Climate Panel, it is abundantly clear that the Paris Agreement provides us with the international foundation to tackle the challenge. However, it requires much greater ambition and much faster action from all countries.

If it is possible to create momentum, then the political, technological, and financial means are in place to secure the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5-degrees this century. On the other hand, the report says unequivocally that if we have not reduced annual emissions by 45% in eight years, we can forget about achieving the 1.5 degrees target. Previous reports have set out very clearly what this will mean for the scale and speed of severe climate change.